FiveThirtyEight uses statistical analysis - hard numbers - to tell compelling stories about elections, politics and American society. All posts tagged “Super Bowl” Feb. 15, 2023. FiveThirtyEight's 2022 NFL forecast uses an Elo-based model to calculate each team's chances of advancing to the playoffs and winning the Super Bowl. UPDATED Feb. 12, 2023, at 10:17 PM 2022 NFL Predictions Redirecting to /nfl/news/super-bowl-59-prediction-odds-spread-time-line-eagles-vs-chiefs-picks-bets-from-expert-on-37-12-roll/. This year’s Super Bowl in Arizona will be the first ever played in a state with legalized gambling. Fans in Glendale will be able to bet while at the game using their phones, and gambling trade The Chiefs and Packers are also the only two teams with more than a 15% chance of winning the Super Bowl, according to FiveThirtyEight's quarterback-adjusted Elo forecast. The Vikings were finally moved into the top ten contenders for Super Bowl odds after a 4-0 start. Minnesota’s odds improved from +2560 to +1700, with some sportsbooks listing them as short as +1200. [September 23] The 49ers didn’t see their Super Bowl odds change much after losing their second straight game in Week 3. The Bills have closed The Patriots, for example, are currently +600 (money-line odds) or 6/1 (fractional odds) to win Super Bowl LIII according to Westgate — commonly referred to as having “six-to-one” odds. • Chiefs’ chances to win Super Bowl: 22.7% • Texans’ chances to win Super Bowl: 3.7% No. 2 Buffalo Bills (13-4, 1-0 playoffs) vs. No. 3 Baltimore Ravens (12-5, 1-0 playoffs) These teams The Kansas City Chiefs captured Super Bowl 58 and the team is listed as a +650 betting choice (Bet $100 to win $650) to three-peat in 2025. Here were the opening odds for which NFL team will win Super Bowl LIX in New Orleans later in 2025. The best Super Bowl odds can be found at our best Super Bowl betting sites. Odds will vary by sportsbook, but they won’t be radically different. For instance, you won’t see one team listed as FiveThirtyEight's 2020 NFL forecast uses an Elo-based model to calculate each team's chances of advancing to the playoffs and winning the Super Bowl. UPDATED Feb. 13, 2022, at 10:03 PM 2021 NFL Predictions *Implied probabilities include the “cut” that bookmakers take on each bet, which is why they add up to over 100. Plurals (e.g., “heroes”) are allowed. This is just the second Super Bowl since the 1973 season with two teams that were at least 1.8 yards better in net YPA than their opponents. (The other was in 2019, Chiefs vs. Niners.) On Jan. 26, 1986, the Chicago Bears beat the Patriots 46-10 in Super Bowl XX. That year, the fearsome ’85 Bears had become “more than just a really good football team,” Chicago native Chuck But Super Bowl Sunday and election night weren’t really very much alike. the Falcons’ odds peaked at about 96 percent according to Las FiveThirtyEight’s model was based on only 11 FiveThirtyEight's 2017 NFL forecast uses an Elo-based model to calculate each team's chances of advancing to the playoffs and winning the Super Bowl. UPDATED Feb. 4, 2018 at 10:21 PM 2017 NFL Predictions SUPER BOWL SB ODDS; Neil Paine was the acting sports editor at FiveThirtyEight. @Neil_Paine. Comments. Filed under. NFL (976 posts) Football (264) 2016 NFL Playoffs (3) Interactives. A FiveThirtyEight Chat. Filed under NFL. Feb. 10, 2023. The Super Bowl Halftime Shows With The Most Star Power By Paroma Soni and Holly Fuong. Filed under Super Bowl LVII. FiveThirtyEight's 2020 NFL forecast uses an Elo-based model to calculate each team's chances of advancing to the playoffs and winning the Super Bowl. UPDATED Feb. 7, 2021, at 10:15 PM 2020 NFL Predictions FiveThirtyEight’s 2015 NFL forecast uses an Elo-based model to calculate each team’s chances of advancing to the playoffs and winning Super Bowl 50. Probabilities are based on 20,000 simulations and update after each game.
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